Based on the figures you have given, it's true that you would not have a penalty for 2022. But it's not because your 2022 withholding is more than your 2021 withholding. Your 2021 withholding has nothing to do with it. You have to compare your 2022 withholding to your 2021 total tax. If the total tax on Form 1040 line 24 of your 2021 tax return is $15,000, and your total 2022 withholding is $17,000, then you would not have any underpayment penalty for 2022 because your 2022 withholding is more than 100% of your 2021 total tax.
Where the 2021 AGI comes in is that your 2021 AGI determines whether the percentage of your 2021 tax that you have to pay is 100% or 110%. Since your 2021 AGI is just under $150,000 it is sufficient if your 2022 withholding is more than 100% of your 2021 total tax. If your 2021 AGI were over $150,000 your 2022 withholding would have to be at least 110% of your 2021 total tax (which would be $!6,500) in order to avoid a penalty.
If you have further questions, please give exact amounts from your 2021 tax return. You are close to some of the thresholds. We don't want you to come to a wrong conclusion because you relied on a rounded or approximate amount.
