It won't be scrutinized. People expecting refunds file extensions all the time, as a 'just in case' precaution. The numbers (tax liability, expected refund, expected balance due) on Form 4868 are meaningless. The IRS created the form years ago and most of it is simply not important - but you have to enter something in order to electronically file it. As long as it shows accepted, you are fine.
It would not matter if you said you were expecting a $20k refund or if you thought you were going to owe a million dollars. I have filed an extension and told the IRS I thought I owed $750,000 - nothing happened. I filed the return 5 months later and paid the $138 I owed with a small amount of interest. There is no penalty for estimating wrong.
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