I agree with your logic. The best way to find the exact amount is to call the IRS and it's very difficult to get any assistance right now.
Their rate of interest was 3% for the second and third quarter of 2021. You could calculate an estimated intertest amount for 2021, by taking that rate times the refund amount on your tax return for 2020 (or the year it relates to).
For 2021:
At 16 weeks, without a tax return, the IRS will start paying interest. That interest collects until the return is sent back to the taxpayer.
- Refund x 3%/360 x number of days the IRS paid refund late (beginning from 16 weeks after May 17th until the refund was received).
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