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I've confirmed it's a problem with today's update:  After being forced to re-activate my primary computer and unable to decline the update on my second computer, I restarted the update on the second computer, killed the wifi to interrupt the update, after which I was able to cancel the update and open TurboTax 2021 without having to reactivate, which rules out a computer issue, such as Windows update, an external drive attached / not attached, etc.

After verifying it wasn't a computer issue, I went ahead and allowed TT 2021 to update on the second computer, and ended up in activation hell there, too.

As such, I've now burned 4 activations on 2 computers.

Intuit really needs to fix this.  This has been a problem for all three TT versions that have required activation.

The only improvement is that TT 2019/2020 was a user-level activation, a problem on multi-user computers, and TT 2021 is a system-level activation, as it should be.