You have identified the correct issue. I followed your suggestion but the boxes for identifying the account don't appear (Is this a bug in the 2020 Turboxtax Deluxe?)
I had received an overpayment last year and had it all refunded, but the information for the account was not carried forward for this return as far as I know.
Using the menu path: Other Tax Situations, Additional Tax Payments, Apply Refund to Next Year, I initially had checked All or part of my refund toward next year's bill. Then I found out that I was getting a bigger refund and changed it to: Give me my entire refund being checked. I've gone through the process of rechecking the federal and state returns. Saved them and did a tax return preview. The tax return indicates all x's in the account and the refund box is not checked for the overpayment.
