Ellery, I had this problem last year. I was told by someone to run TurboTax as administrator. After that, the downloads took an inordinate amount of time, sometimes 45 minutes. It looks like nothing is downloading, but it is working in the background. Then, all of a sudden, I get the message that the download was successful. Every new update takes a very long time, but I deal with it. I had to update the 2019 Program before the 2020 transfer of files worked. I hope this helps. I know how frustrating this is. I almost did not renew this year because of it. It may or may not work for you, but it worked for me. Patience is the key.
There should be an easier fix.
