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Well, I just had this problem today after dozens of launches and multiple updates without any issues. No external USB drives, no  update prior to running the program, just the request for activation window. I immediately closed it and tried to restart, but got the activation window again. So, I rebooted the computer, started the program, and this time it worked normally. Closed the program and started it again with the same normal result. So, I guess there is nearly 100% probability that this problem will surface eventually if you start the program enough times no matter how your system is configured. Fortunately, at least in my case, the solution is pretty simple. Don’t repeat the activation, and reboot the computer.