You are correct in your reasoning. While scholarships are not considered him providing his own support (unless he claims some as taxable income, which he may do), loans are considered his own support because he is responsible to repay them. But the question is not whether you provide 50% of his support, but rather if he provided at least half of his own support. He is not providing his health insurance; that factors into the equation.
If the numbers are close, he could claim a portion of his scholarship as taxable. This then becomes his income that does contribute to his own support. Then, you state as you mention in your question: he states no one can claim him as a dependent, and he will be allowed to claim the refundable portion of the American Opportunity Credit on his tax return.
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