No, the state refund received in 2025 would not affect your ability to deduct state taxes paid in 2025. If you had deducted it by itemizing in 2024, it would be added to taxable income in 2025, not deducted from state taxes paid. The mention of refund applied to 2025 tax means if you had a refund and applied it to your 2025 tax, it would be deductible as taxes paid in 2025 along with the estimated taxes you mention.
You will have to look on the State and Local Tax Deduction Worksheet to see how your state tax deduction was calculate in TurboTax. You can do that once you pay for your TurboTax product, before you file.
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