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Get your taxes done using TurboTax
I'd written "The issue of PC replacements is an MS issue - they didn't extend support (it ended 2 weeks ago), ESU is security life support to get off Win 10. There are hacks to extend lifespan of old H/W which people are using to upgrade to Win 11. Most people have to deal this in the next 12 months anyway whether they plan to use turbotax or not."
Folks have different understandings of "support", but to quote MS on page below - "Windows 10 support has ended"...
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/extended-security-updates
Yes you will continue to get updates under ESU but only for critical/important security patches. Some people regard that as sufficient "support", that's fine.
Either way, I don't think MS or Intuit are changing direction on anything at this point. If your goal is to put off Win 11 for as long as possible, then you'll need another tax process or workaround.
I agree with you regarding online if they close the functionality gap and forms mode etc and it becomes more like desktop workflow that would be one thing, just leaves the cost and privacy. But I think it'll be some years before desktop goes away.