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Generally, the AI method helps if you make uneven/late ES payments which line up with uneven income, in particular if that occurs late in the year so the higher quarterly estimated taxes couldn't be planned thru the year (e.g. Roth Conversion in Q4, but you made smaller ES payments in Q1-3 not taking the Roth conversion income into account, and then a much larger one in Q4).

 

IRS penalty calculation by default assumes your income is even thru the year (divides total by 4) to line up with quarterly ES payments; the AI method provides a way to specify your AGI/tax liability by quarter instead of assuming it is even by default.

 

But if your income is even, and you make late ES payments just because they're late not because your income changed, the AI method will likely still determine you underpaid in the earlier quarters, it's not a solution for missing quarterly payments that were due.

 

When you come to file for 2025 you can always run thru the AI process in TT under Other Tax Situations / Underpayment Penalty to see if it reduces the penalty and then TT gives you the choice whether to file with that method or not.

 

Note on your comment - 1040-ES doesn't calculate income it's just a form to file the estimated tax (and try to pay electronically online at irs.gov and be sure to select 2025 tax year and 1040-ES as the type of payment - no voucher/check needed).  To estimate income you'll need to use some tax calculator; TT 2024 desktop can be used to run a hypothetical return but won't take into account 2025 tax brackets/deductions and other changes from the big bill; or follow method suggested by @Mike9241.

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