If you've had a significant increase in income for 2025 between the combination of these events, then paying estimated tax based on prior year tax is probably going to be advantageous for your situation (and simplest). If you pay that in 4 quarterly installments this would avoid penalty regardless of how much or when your 2025 income occurs. But now it's June so if you didn't pay any Q1 ES then you need to pay 50% in Q2 (by Monday 6/16) to minimize the penalty (you'll still have some penalty on Q1 ES payment only for a few months).
When you did your 2024 return TT would have produced ES vouchers by default based on prior year tax but be careful here those vouchers assume your withholding for 2025 is the same as 2024 which sounds like not the case so your actual ES payments using this method will be higher than the ES vouchers calculated when you filed your 2024 taxes (ES = safe harbor amount minus withholding).
I see your comments about "3 installments" not sure where that is coming from but caution here, if not using AI method then you need to pay ES quarterly whether it's based on prior year or current tax to meet 25% by Q1, 50% by Q2, 75% by Q3, 100% by Q4. If you missed Q1 and split it into 3 installments for the rest of the year you will pay 33% by Q2 (underpaid), 66% by Q3 (still underpaid), 100% by Q4 (finally caught up). The sooner you catch up the missing 25% from Q1 the sooner the penalty stops accruing.
If you plan to use the AI method then I think the ES needs to line up with the income by quarter, you would basically have to pay 90% of your tax now in Q2 if you are saying you already earned most of your income by now. This is tax you could be earning interest on if you make quarterly payments, even with some penalty for Q1. AI method is certainly advantageous if you have a large unplanned income even later in the year and need to make a large one-off ES payment in December say. Check the math but not sure it helps you when the income is all in Q1-2. Whether AI is worth the extra calculations and filing bother also depends how much tax and penalty you are talking about. I think you need to figure out your safe harbor amount and quarterly payment/penalty options before going the AI route.
If you have desktop TT you can run an estimate for 2025 using the 2024 software (as a new return, nothing to do with your actual 2024 return) - allowing for some differences in deduction limits or tax tables, but it gets close enough. You would need to get your 2024 AGI/tax into TT as "2023" as you can't carry over a return in this case (it asks for this in Other Tax Situations / Underpayment Penalty). You can then run thru different ES and penalty scenarios and run through AI method calculations also.
Not a CPA just a few thoughts based on what you described, hope this helps.
