If you're on desktop go for Forms mode, "Est Tax Options" will show the different options and what is driving the ES calcs. Not sure equivalent on TT Online. Either way you can work thru it using interview mode also, go to Other Tax Situations / Form W-4 and Estimated Taxes.
TT will default to ES based off 2024 tax (@ 100% or 110% if AGI > 150k) if you don't give it 2025 information to use 2025 tax (@ 90%).
I'm guessing your AGI is > 150k so it's taking 110% of your 2024 tax and finding the withholding isn't enough but you can switch to 90% of 2025, which could be a big difference.
