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Using the online version. I had the same issue and my stress level was through the roof.
Early in the process, after going through dependents, and before entering any forms other than a placeholder for a single 1099, I ran the REVIEW (left side of page scroll down below State Taxes.) When it gave me things to fix, I skipped them. It then took me to the Federal Review. Again, more prompts to fix things and enter forms, etc. I skipped them all. Skipped the prompt to begin working on State Taxes. BINGO! Up popped the running Refund/Taxes Owed meter!
As a point of reference, my taxes are fairly complex; my return for this year runs 177 pages (and counting).
