I had a similar problem (macOS 15.2 on an M1 MacBook Pro) and had a long call with TurboTax support. It would launch, check for updates, and get to the "No tax form updates" dialog without an issue. Once I clicked OK in that window, I would get the spinning beachball for a few seconds and then it would crash with no messages (no option to report to Apple as you usually see).
In any case, we went through a bunch of things and I finally thought to remove the tax file I had started so it wouldn't be able to open it (I actually just compressed it and deleted the original). I was then able to launch TurboTax as usual and an empty tax file opened.
So, I thought there may have been something wrong with the file. To test that theory, I put the original file back and launched the application again but it continued to work. Not sure what the issue was, but it is certainly worth trying that approach. I'd be interested to know if it works for others as I'm a little concerned the issue will reoccur.
