I too had this problem, and the next day I was able to activate using the icon installed on my computer. I can only guess as to why - there was a statement when I initially activated about an up to a four hour wait, so it may be an internal hold period at Intuit, but no statement on the activation failure screen - only that I was not connected to the internet, or there was a problem with a firewall. I worked with my virus protection group, and they determined that it wasn't them (this was quite the headache, by the way, it gives me pause to use turbotax again to be honest). Thus, a delay at Intuit, I am guessing. Anyway, try again the next day is my advice.
