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dmertz  Thank you for the terrific reply.  You're right, it's not HSA- or QCD-related. I've got more digging to do on your point 3.

  • Line 6 (YE2023 values) of form 8606 has the correct amount.  My traditional IRAs do not have zero balance as of YE2023.
  • Line 7 of form 8606 has the correct amount of distributions.  It's much lower than my basis. 
  • Line 15c of form 8606 (taxable amount) is zero. 
  • But upon closer examination, line 2 of form 8606 (total basis in traditional IRAs) looks high, and I'll have to dig deeper to ensure the right number there for this year and future years.