The amount you are refunded at the end of the year is a function of gross income (which varies), tax rates (which vary), deductions, tax law changes (all too common), and withholding, which varies.
The IRS has been fine-tuning the withholding table for the last several years, meaning that there is no reason to think that this isn't the issue.
You might use the TurboTax 2023 Tax Calculator (it should be close enough for 2024) to get a handle on how much you might owe, then when you do your W-4 for 2024, make sure that it is withholding the amount you want.
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