if 2024 will be the same as 2023, then yes you either need to increase your withholding or make estimated tax payments to avoid penalties.
There will be no federal penalties for 2024 for not paying in enough taxes during the year if withholding and
- timely estimated tax payments equal or exceed 90% of your 2024 tax or
- timely estimated tax payments equal or exceed 100% of your 2023 tax (110% if your 2023 adjusted gross income was more than $150K) or
- the balance due after subtracting taxes withheld from 90% of your 2024 tax is less than $1,000 or
- your total taxes are less than $1,000
state laws differ
as you can see unless you do something you would not meet any of the above exceptions for 2024. This is why TT is generating 2024 estimates. Rather than pay estimates you can increase your withholding, It's your choice. if later in 2024, you estimate that your taxes will be less than 2023 you can lower your withholding by filing a new w-4 with your employer or reduce or eliminate estimates for the rest of the year. However, doing so means you might not be safe from penalties should something occur that increases your 2024 liability.
FYI. in 2022 you owed about $3K and did nothing to reduce the amount owed for 2023. If you used Turbotax in 2022 then it will automatically generate a penalty calculation for 2023 because you meet none of the exceptions above. However, there may be some sort of exception if you suffered a declared national disaster in 2023
if you want to know the amount just complete your return for 2023. the penalty will be calculated automatically and show up on line 38 of the 1040.
