Should I be paying estimated taxes?

I've read through:

https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tips/small-business-taxes/estimated-taxes-how-to-determine-what-to-p...

 

I've been filing with Turbo Tax software for many years, own one home in California so end up using standard deduction. Primary income from full time employment is W-2 (withholding), and secondary income started in 2022 that is 1099-NEC (no withholding).

 

For the first time in my life, in the 2022 tax year I owed $3000 which I paid in full April 2023. My 2023 tax year is looking to be the same situation, pay $3000 in April. Turbo Tax summary shows:

Total taxes owed = $9000

Total taxes paid (withholding + credits) = $6000

Taxes DUE = $3000

 

I've never paid estimated taxes (because the Turbo Tax software has never said that I need to), and I've never had any penalties or letters from the IRS. However, it seems like the article linked above is saying that I should be paying estimated taxes. Why doesn't the Turbo Tax software match up with their article? Am I just "flying under the radar" and risking the IRS knocking on my door? If that happens, how much of a penalty could there be?  $100 ? or $1000 ? or ?