don't confuse the "failure to estimate enough" penalty with the "failure to pay in full on time" penalty.
If your quarterly withholding and estimates in 2023 are at least 100% / 4 = 25% ( 110% / 4 for certain high income taxpayers) of your 2022 tax, there will be no penalty on your 2023 tax return, regardless of any jump in income.
@BostonGuido
