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Your understanding is basically correct.  And when you sell your investments, you won't even pay 15% on the entire amount, just the portion that is gains.  The trade-off is that you got to invest the IRA money tax-free at the beginning, so you had more to invest.

 

I can't tell you what you should do, that's complex and probably requires the assistance of a financial planner who knows all your important details, future spending plans, etc.

 

I will point out that in 2026, the 22% tax bracket will go up to 25%, unless Congress intervenes to extend the 2017 rate reductions.  So there might even be an argument that you should withdraw more from the IRA now, or do a Roth conversion, to pay 22% now instead of 25% or more in the future (depending on your long term view of political and tax trends).  But this is just a comment, not advice.  

 

Good luck.