The estimated tax payment coupons created with your return are in your copy only. They do not get sent to the IRS unless you send one in with payment and therefore do not create the expectation of payments. Since you have not had estimated taxes in previous years, it may be that the current tax law or the dollar amounts just worked out right that TurboTax is expecting you to potentially hit the calculation limits and is trying to help you avoid any penalties. The site I have provided shows how the underpayment penalty is calculated as well as the interest so you can gauge how much risk there may be for you.
You can see Estimated Taxes for more information.
@Evapnw
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