The refund counter is a progress tool that tracks information as you enter it in real time. In theory it tells you what your refund would be or what you would owe if you were to stop and file right now instead of entering another form. It often makes weird assumptions, though, and therefore isn't reliable until you're done.
Without looking at your tax return there is no way to know what has the tool assuming you'll pay taxes without even entering a form. But I can tell you that the refund counter doesn't know what you're going to enter yet so can't be relied upon to make judgements until after you enter your information.
@rptp98
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