you have a 2022 overpayment. Turbotax has calculate that your 2023 withholding, really the same as 2022 unless you change it, will not be enough to cover the minimum amount of tax payments required to avoid penalties. your options are to get the refund and then pay quarterly estimates calculated by Tutbotax or use the overpayment to pay part of the estimated tax. you may still need to pay the balance of the estimates
