Congratulations on becoming a business owner!
You mentioned that your LLC is a disregarded entity, which means the LLC business income and expenses are reported on your personal tax return, on Schedule C. As such, the LLC itself would not file a quarterly estimated tax payment; rather, you need to determine if you as an individual need to make an estimated tax payment for the fourth quarter of 2022.
You need to look at your personal tax return and factor in what changes will occur when you report the LLC income/expenses on the 2022 tax return. I recommend doing a mock tax return, using the prior year as a baseline, then factoring in any current year changes, such as the LLC income for 2022. if you estimate that, even with the LLC income, you will be in a refund position on your 2022 tax return, then you do not need to make an estimated tax payment.
If, however, you do not pay tax (or enough tax) through withholding, you may need to make estimated tax payments. Self-employed taxpayers (such as yourself, as an LLC that is a disregarded entity) generally pay tax this way. Other taxpayers may need to pay estimated tax if they receive income such as dividends, interest, capital gains, rents, and royalties. Estimated taxes include not only income tax, but other taxes such as self-employment tax and AMT.
When you complete your 2022 tax return, you may owe a penalty for not paying in enough during the year if the tax return shows a balance due of over $1,000 (note, some states may have lower thresholds for the estimated tax penalty - check with your specific state). However, there is a "safe harbor" rule, in that an estimated tax penalty will not apply if either of the following amounts is paid through withholding or timely estimated tax payments for 2021.
- At least 90% of the tax shown on the current year return, or
- 100% of the tax shown on the prior year return (110% if prior year AGI was greater than $150,000/$75,000 MFS).
So, the answer as to whether or not you need to make estimated tax payments really depends on your personal tax situation and whether or not you estimate that your 2022 return will show a balance due in excess of $1,000.
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