The Audit risk meter in TurboTax is a general guideline from information of what the IRS audits from year-to-year. The IRS may focus on various issues including identity, and self-employed business income and expenses.
Your income and financial information has changed this year, however the IRS has looked very closely at 1099-MISC income and deductions for many years. Moving to medium risk does not necessarily mean the IRS will audit your return.
The following article may be helpful in understanding the TurboTax audit meter:
https://ttlc.intuit.com/questions/1900711-about-the-audit-risk-meter
