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If a child turned 17, you lost the child tax credit, which could have provided up to $1700 of refundable additional child tax credit. Now instead of the CTC you get the non-refundable $500 credit for other dependents. So, certainly that could make a difference.
As for whether that is the only reason for your lower refund---we cannot guess.
We cannot see your screen, your return or your account. Have you entered ALL of your 2025 information? All your income, etc.? Many tax documents that you need do not arrive until late January or even February, so maybe you do not have it all there yet.
There are a lot of variables that affect your refund or tax due including how much you earned, how much tax you had withheld, your filing status, the number of dependents you claim, your deductions and credits, etc. You may have lost Earned Income Credit or the Child Tax Credit— did a child turn 17? If you received the EIC last year, remember that changes in the amount you earn have a big effect on the amount of EIC you can get. (Sometimes earning more money means less EIC) Did you have any “side gigs” like rideshare driving or delivery driving—-with no tax withheld? Are you 65 or older ? If so, your standard deduction is higher. Everyone has a higher standard deduction now so it is harder to use itemized deductions.
And of course, always check your own data entries, looking for errors such as misplaced decimals or extra zeros.
Print out 2024 and 2025 and compare them side by side to see what is different.
https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tips/tax-payments/video-why-would-i-owe-federal-taxes/L3VXudPiN
In tax year 2024 you got a child tax credit of $2,000. In 2025 your credit is only $500.
As explained by @xmasbaby0 and @Bsch4477, the loss of the $2,000 child tax credit you may have qualified for in 2024 may explain your lower refund in 2025. The mention of potential higher refunds this year can be attributed to an increase in the child tax credit of $200 and also a deduction for qualifying overtime pay and tip income. If you don't have that type of income that may explain why your refund has not increased.
The idea that more people will get larger refunds is probably true on average, if you include the increase in the child tax credit for children 16 and under, new deductions for overtime and tips, extra deductions for seniors, and other changes. But each family is different and unique. (I unfortunately owe more, because I don't have kids, and I sold some investments.)
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