Thank you for the question. I am sorry that you had to pay an estimated tax penalty for this. Not that this will make it better, but this is an issue I encounter quite a bit at Turbo Tax.
The safe step to take here is to leave Step 3 blank. This $500 cushion could assist you in avoiding an estimated tax penalty in the near future. You may also want to take your last pay stub for this year and take the year to date tax withholding and then add the tax withholding for that pay period multiplied only by the number of pay periods remaining for the year. You would then compare this number to Line 24 of the 2023 1040. This will allow you to see how close you are now.
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