Solved
I recall that 100% is not sufficient to avoid penalties if my income should be much higher than the previous year's, but I forgot the threshold.
see Form 2210 instructions (or 1040-ES), the safe harbor is the smaller of - 90% of current year tax (regardless of AGI), or 100% of prior year tax (110% if prior year AGI > 150k or 75k for Married Filing Single)
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