Hi educateme123,
Congratulations on your new addition!
While I don't know the amount of your pay raise or exactly how much financial impact the maternity leave had, I can point out some general concepts that may help you answer your own question.
Last year you received a refund of $3-4k. Last year the CTC was $2000 per child so you would have received $4000 for the twins.
This year, the CTC you will receive is $7200 - as you calculated correctly. $3600 for the child born in 2021 and $1800 each for the non-advanced half of each of the twins' CTC. So for starters you have an additional $3200 in CTC that you didn't get last year.
So, if everything else stayed exactly the same from last year you would have a $6000-$7000 refund ($3-4k plus $3200).
Only you can assess the impact of the pay raise vs. maternity leave, but since you received a fairly healthy refund last year I can presume you generally have adequate withholding from your jobs. As long as that continues to be the case I see no reason you could not expect another solid refund this year.
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