federal doesn't open until 2/12/21 so that would be the earliest. state could be same date or later because they would accept it until the federal is accepted.  

Is this something new? I've never had to wait for a confirmation before. Why does TurboTax say it usually takes 48 hours?

Yes it is later this year.  Usually the IRS opens in mid-late January.  But there are so many changes this year and they are still behind on processing 2019 that the IRS won't start taking returns until Feb 12.

You usually get the confirmation within 48 hours AFTER the IRS accepts your return.